The bitcoin price is bouncing around the closely-watched $20,000 per bitcoin level, down more than 70% from its November all-time high, while the ethereum price has crashed to under $1,000 per ether—wiping away 80% of the network’s value. Other top ten cryptocurrencies BNB
Now, ethereum co-creator Vitalik Buterin, generally regarded as the project’s spiritual leader, has warned the controversial stock-to-flow bitcoin price prediction model “is really not looking good now.”
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“I know it’s impolite to gloat and all that, but I think financial models that give people a false sense of certainty and predestination that number-will-go-up are harmful and deserve all the mockery they get,” Buterin posted to Twitter, responding to a tweet by ethereum information site Ethhub co-founder Anthony Sassano, who described stock-to-flow as an “an epic failure.”
The stock-to-flow bitcoin price prediction model, developed by an anonymous financial analyst using the pseudonym PlanB, attempts to calculate the future price of bitcoin based on the current supply relative to how many more bitcoins are created. Bitcoin’s supply is designed to decrease over time, with a mechanism known as “halving” cutting the number of new coins produced every four years by 50%.
Stock-to-flow came under significant criticism late last year after the bitcoin price failed to top $100,000 as PlanB had predicted in September, saying at the time the bitcoin “price must increase [to above] $100,000 or stock-to-flow is dead.”
The price prediction model shows the bitcoin price should be trading between $100,000 and $110,000 per bitcoin through 2022 with the latest crypto crash that’s pushed bitcoin below $20,000 casting further doubt on the validity of the model.
Last week, Buterin had also criticized the stock-to-flow bitcoin price prediction model, suggesting known reductions in asset supply would be priced in by the market ahead of time.
“The ‘halvings cause BTC price rises’ theory is unfalsifiable: Was the peak before the halving? Then it ‘rose in anticipation of the halving’ during? ‘Because of the halving’ After? ‘Because of…’ The last $20,000 peak was near the halfway point between the 2016 and 2020 halvings,” Buterin posted to Twitter.
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PlanB hit back against the ethereum creator’s latest attack, claiming the $2 trillion crypto crash has left some “looking for scapegoats.”
“After a crash, some people are looking for scapegoats for their failed projects or wrong investment decisions,” the anonymous analyst wrote. “Not only newbies but also ‘leaders’ fall victim to blaming others and playing the victim. Remember those who blame others and those who stand strong after a crash.”
The ethereum price has suffered an even greater crash than bitcoin this year as it grapples with a long-awaited upgrade that will fundamentally change the way the ethereum network is secured.
Ethereum has for years been planning to switch from bitcoin’s proof-of-work model to proof-of-stake, a change that will see so-called miners who are awarded fresh ether coins in exchange for directing computing power toward the network replaced by users “staking” their ether.